Turkey: CBRT gross reserves at the lowest level in a year

According to the weekly data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, total foreign currency deposits decreased by 742 million dollars in the week of July 22, adjusted for the parity effect. Compared to the previous week, foreign currency deposits of real persons decreased by 513 million dollars, while foreign currency deposits of legal entities decreased by 229 million dollars.

Looking at foreign currency deposits, it was seen that the foreign currency deposits of domestic residents increased by 736 million dollars to 210.4 billion dollars last week. The size of the currency-protected deposits, which has been tracked on the basis of reserves for a while, was TRY 1.10 trillion.

The downward trend in the gross foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) continued last week as well. According to the CBRT data, as of the week of July 22, the gross reserves were 98.3 billion dollars. This was the lowest level since June 2021. Gross reserves were $99.4 billion the previous week. A limited recovery was observed in the CBRT net reserves. Net reserves, which were $6.4 billion the previous week, rose to $6.7 billion in the week of July 22. In addition, a decrease was observed in net reserves excluding swaps. As of the same week, net reserves excluding swaps were negative $55.4 billion, compared to minus $54.8 billion the previous week.

Looking at the securities statistics of foreigners, it was seen that net sales of 77 million dollars of stocks and 4 million dollars of bonds were seen last week. Turkish lira continues its losses against the dollar. The lira continued its longest decline since May, while 5-year CDSs were 875 basis points. The Central Bank revised its year-end inflation forecasts upwards. Chairman of the CBRT, Mr. Şahap Kavcıoğlu announced that the bank increased its year-end inflation forecast from 42.8% to 60.4%. While the Fed’s decisions were followed in terms of the global movement of the dollar, the US economy shrank in the second quarter, despite the growth expectations, at a time when the Fed increased interest rates in the fight against inflation, consumption expenditures slowed down, and housing and investment demand declined.

At the current level, we will continue to follow the trends in the FX-linked product focused on dollarization, reserve cumulation and financial stability. In addition, although a breakdown of FX and TRY accounts has not been published, we consider that this distinction is 55% conversion from FX to TRY and 45% direct TRY account opening in line with the statements of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance. As of the week of July 22, the financial dollarization rate is at the level of 54.54%, there is no more change than the rate that was 54.60% in the previous week. This rate was at the level of 54.8% in the same period of the previous year.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı