Turkey: April industrial production increases by 10.8%

In April, industrial production in Turkey increased by 10.8% compared to the same month of the previous year, according to calendar adjusted data; Seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production did not change compared to the previous month. According to unadjusted data, industrial production increased by 10.5% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The strength of the industrial production side can be evaluated positively. These rates show that growth may maintain a certain strength in 2Q22 as well. On the other hand, when other leading growth indicators are analyzed, it is seen that PMI and other data show some slowdown effect. Due to the geopolitical crisis, the current situation in global input deficits and costs seems to continue in the coming months. We think that the increases in the annual industrial production index will tend to decline in the coming months due to the war, high inflation and increases in cost inputs.

When we look at the details; mining and quarrying increased by 3.4% on a monthly basis, while it grew by 7.4% on an annual basis. While an increase of 0.1% was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, there was a growth of 11.9% on an annual basis. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was a 3.3% decrease on a monthly basis, and a contraction of 0.4% on an annual basis. While capital goods increased by 7.6% on a monthly basis; energy decreased by 2.5%, intermediate goods by 1.9%, durable consumer goods by 1.3% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.1%. Looking at the annual changes in the related items; Non-durable consumer goods increased by 18.4%, capital goods by 13.2%, intermediate goods by 8.1%, durable goods by 5.8% and energy by 2.4%.

After the Russia-Ukraine issue, Turkey has become more important for the European market in terms of supply. This demand seems to support the industry for now. However, the risk of war also negatively affects the export potential due to the global economic repercussions it creates. Although external demand indicators remained partially strong in 2Q22, we expect this effect to turn negative in the second half of the year due to the increasing recession potential in the Euro Area. We evaluate the effect of high inflation in terms of domestic demand and the cost factors in terms of investment tendencies of companies as negative.

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Hibya Haber Ajansı